UFC 81: Breaking Point Predictions

UFC 81 Breaking Point poster UFC 81 “Breaking Point” is all set to rock your face on come February 2nd. The card has several interesting match-ups with possible title implications, and of course all the WWE fanatics out there will get to see what their favorite pro wrestling superstar can do in a cage fight.

Plus, it happens to fall right before so the Super Bowl, so while you’re down at your local bookie’s place betting the farm on the Pats, you might as well supplement your income by betting on the fights using my amazingly accurate predictions (of the televised fights, plus one dark bout special!).

Ricardo “WTF does Cachorrao mean?” Almeida (8-2) vs. Alan “The Talent” Belcher (12-4)

This is one of those fights where you could make a mint by taking advantage of your uneducated friends. Lots of people are on the Alan Belcher bandwagon because he hung tough with Yushin Okami, choked out Sean “Highlight KO Victim” Salmon, and TKO’d TUF 3 standout Kalib Starnes. Couple this with the fact hardly any new UFC fans have heard of Almeida since hasn’t been in the UFC since UFC 35 “Throwdown” in 2002 (where he lost to Andrei Semenov by TKO), and you get easy money.

Since his last UFC appearance Almeida has been on a tear, scoring wins over Ikuhisa “The Punk” Minowa, Nathan “The Rock” Marquardt (who is also fighting on this card), and freaking Ryo Chonan! That list is quite a step up from TUF scraps and Sean “I would get KO’d by Charlie Brown” Salmon.

I see Belcher coming out looking to establish himself striking. Belcher’s good, but I don’t think he’s anywhere near as dangerous as Ryo Chonan so I don’t see Almeida having much trouble. Eventually it’s going to go to the ground and that’s when The Talent’s luck is going to run out.

Almeida by 2nd round submission.

Gleison Tibau (15-4) vs. Tyson “Thunder Thighs” Griffin (10-1)

After running riot over some pretty stiff competition in the LW division, Griffin finally gets a “tune up” fight. This probably means that he will be fighting Roger Huerta for the right to challenge the winner of Sherk vs Penn for the LW strap (even though that honor should go to Frank Edgar…) in the near future.

The biggest thing that Tibau has ever done is lost to Nick Diaz. Wow… that’s lightweight pedigree right there. Wait I take it back, he also beat Jeffery Cox, that’s right, THE Jeffery Cox of the Strong Style fight team… You get the point. Tyson Griffin on the other end just came off fights against some of the strongest competition the LW division has to offer. He beat Thiago Tavares (unanimous decision), Clay Guida (questionable split decision), and lost to a very game Frank Edgar (in a fight of the year candidate).

Basically what is going to happen is Griffin is going to walk right through poor old Tibau. Expect to see him out wrestle/muscle/strike him for a while and then either end it with a quick sub or by pounding the crap out of him for a ref stoppage, all in the first round.

Griffin by first round TKO

Jeremy “Gumby” Horn (79-16-5) vs. Nate “The Great” Marquardt (25-7)

This fight should be pretty good; you get an old veteran looking at (maybe) his last chance to become a staple in the “big show” taking on a former title contender who was DE-STROYED by the current champ.

When we last saw Mr. Horn he was beating up WEC middleweight title contender Chael Sonnen en-route to an arm bar submission victory in the second. Since then, he’s lost to Matt Lindland (no shame there) by TKO in the IFL, beat Falinko Vitale by split decision, and lost a quick scrap to Jorge Santiago (choke, 3 minutes into the first). Last time we saw Marquardt he was busy trying to find his face after Anderson Silva punched it off and fed it to a homeless man.

Now, many people are going to give this one to Gumby since the only loss most of them saw was to Chuck Liddel (whom he had beaten in their previous encounter), while the only thing anyone remembers about Marquardt is how fast he fell down when Anderson hit him. These people are going to count out the former king of Pancrase, and that is why you are going to make money off of them.

Horn is a great fighter, but having 100 fights will take it out of anyone. He’s the old guard and his body is starting to betray him. Gumby is not good enough to pose a danger to The Rock on the ground, and he doesn’t have the wrestling to stop Nate from taking him there. Marquardt will out hustle Gumby en route to a boring lay and pray decision victory, but a victory none the less.

Marquardt by unanimous decision

DARK BOUT SPECIAL!!!

Marvin “Detective Doakes from Dexter” Eastman (14-7) vs. Terry Martin (16-3)

Yeah, this one is a “dark bout”, which means it is not scheduled to be televised, unless it turns out to be awesome, and I think this one will. This fight has highlight KO written all over it with two hard hitters squaring up against one another.

Beastman is coming off a win (unanimous decision) over Rob Kimmons at the extraordinarily titled IFO event “Eastman vs. Kimmons”. Before that he was getting his face smacked off by current UFC LHW champ Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 67 (Rampage’s debut in the UFC). Beastman looked pretty decent against Rampage before catching a right on his chin, but its Rampage, so I’m not going to count that against him. What I will count against him is getting knocked out by freaking Travis “I can’t cut weight for the TUF 4 title shot” Lutter at UFC 50. Yeah, Travis Lutter the jiu-jitsu guy, not the most dangerous of strikers.

Terry Martin had been on a tear in the UFC. After dropping down in weight to 185 he had scored wins over Ivan Salaverry and Jorge Rivera. He was well on his way to wrecking Chris “Cat Smasher” Leben until he got crazy stupid and dared Leben to hit him at the end of the third round. Leben obliged him and KO’d his dumb ass with a left. I can’t imagine Terry will do that again.

Like I said before, this fight should be a barn burner. You got two big strikers looking to kill each other. Martin wants to get back on track after the Leben debacle and Eastman wants to cement his place as a UFC mainstay after years of trying. One can make an argument that both have suspect chins, but the fact that Travis Lutter KO’d Eastman is hard for me to forget.

Martin via 2nd round KO

Frank Mir (10-3) vs. Brock Lesnar (1-0)

This is the type of fight that WWE fanboys have been jerking it to for years. Finally, a legitimate tough guy from fake wrestling is going to prove how tough pro wrestlers are. For years, I’ve listened to wrestling lovers talk about how Stone Cold Steve Austin would destroy Randy Couture. Now obviously, that fight would last about as long as a joint at the Diaz house, but I understand the appeal of wanting to see what their “heroes” can do outside the confines of a script.

Brock Lesnar is no joke. He was a division one All American wrestler from MN in his college days. He’s obviously very strong and he is coming in at the HW limit of 265. Mir is a not small, but is going to be giving up about 25 or so pounds to Lesnar, and that’s if Brock doesn’t have to cut anything for the weigh-in.

Mir is a submission wizard and former UFC HW champ who wins most of his fights on talent alone. I don’t believe I have ever seen him get into the third round without looking completely exhausted. His chin is also a bit suspect, as Vera stopped him in just over a minute and Marcio Cruz did it in just under one round, but he was the champ and he did break Tim Sylvia’s arm. The ability to beat Brock (at least in this stage of Brock’s career) is there, it’s just a question of whether or not he trained enough to do it.

This fight really comes down to how hard Lesnar has been training to dodge subs. The fight is going to go to the ground early on, probably by Lesnar takedown, but Mir is dangerous from his back (at least in the first round). Traditionally, elite (real) wrestlers do pretty well in the UFC, but they have a tendency to get caught in subs, especially early in their career. I think Brock might be taking Mir lightly, and I think Brock might be a bit overconfident after his first fight against Min Soo Kim (who was 4-5 when he fought Lesnar). All this comes together to form a bit of an upset in my mind.

Mir by first round sub

Tim “The Maine-iac” Sylvia vs. Antonio “Minotauro” Nogueira

This is the fight for the “Interim” UFC HW title. It’s an interim because the UFC is still clinging to the hope that it can get Randy back. I really hope they can do that deal, but I don’t see it happening, especially since they are suing him now. Anyway, in all reality the “interim” title will become the actual title in the near future, so this one is for all the marbles.

On one side we have Tim Sylvia, possibly the most unpopular champion ever. People tend to boo him a lot because he fights very conservative with a “sprawl and stall” style. He will use his freakishly long arms to pepper his opponent with jabs while walking away from them the entire fight. He hates being on the ground (probably because Mir snapped his arm of there) and will do anything to prevent himself from going there, even walk in a circle for 25 minutes. Tim is representing the “old” UFC, the UFC before the merge with Pride. When Tim was the UFC HW champ he arguably wasn’t even a top five HW (at that time one could argue that Fedor, Nog, Cro-Cop, Barnett, and possibly Hunt/Alexander Emelianenko were better). Since that time, Pride as an organization has collapsed and many of its top fighters have had trouble in the Octagon, especially a certain Croatian HW.

Tim is going to try to keep this anti Pride trend going. In order to win he will have to stuff Nog’s takedowns and try to use his crazy reach advantage to outpoint him. Tim does have reasonably heavy hands, but he is NOT going to KO Nog, who has maybe the second best chin in MMA (behind Mark Hunt) and was last KO’d by a truck.

Nog on the other end is looking for his first title in 5 years. He held the title in Pride before Fedor got there, but the Russian’s kept the belt ever since. He was even denied a GP title when Barnett beat him in the open weight grand prix (which Cro-Cop later won). Nog is going to be hungry for this one, and I think Tim might be in trouble because of it. The Brazilian has been working on his standup with the Cuban National Boxing Team in Cuba. He is already a master on the ground, and now he is looking to get a lot more dangerous on his feet. The only problem Tim poses is with his size and sprawling ability. Nog has been working on his standup, but he has one of the best ground games in the business. If he can put Tim on his back it’s all but over.

I think this fight is going to play out with Tim backing up and using the jab. Nog’s wrestling ability isn’t that great but he will get after Tim and keep after him. By the time this thing hits the fourth or fifth round Tim is going to be too gassed to prevent Nog from getting him to the ground. Once it hits Nog’s world it’s all over for the Maine-iac.